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Climate change scenarios for India

Climate change is predicted to impact India's natural resource base, including water resources, forestry and agriculture, through changes in precipitation, temperatures, monsoon timings, and extreme events. Climate change in India may pose additional stresses on ecological and socioeconomic systems that already face tremendous pressures from rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development. By examining these potential stresses and impacts, climate science seeks to predict future trends to help inform policymaking. Climate science uses scenario development and forecasting to understand the degree of change in climate that could occur, and the different factors that could effect the degree of climate change. For example, economic and population growth can increase greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to climate change, while technological advances may reduce these factors. Given the projected high growth levels in India's economy and population, combined with the potential consequences of climate change, information about how these factors inter-relate may be useful to guide policy making at the community, regional and national levels. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in collaboration with the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK carried out an analysis of climate change scenarios for India. IITM used the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the Indian subcontinent (See Box 2.1) to model the potential impacts of climate change. These models incorporate the socio-economic scenarios for India and form the basis for the topical studies conducted as a part of this research programme.

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