Monsoon 2013: a report

The report provides a detailed analysis of the various aspects of operational monitoring and forecasting of observed weather and climate features of 2013 SW monsoon. The report also discussed impact of the monsoon on the major Kharif crops during the season. The season had several unique features such as record early advance of monsoon over the entire country, formation of large number of low pressure areas weaker than depressions, absence of break monsoon conditions etc. The 2013 monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole was 106% of long period average but showed strong spatial and temporal variability. Though, the forcing from Pacific and Indian Oceans were nearly neutral, the observed rainfall distribution over the country can be linked to the favourable MJO activity in the early part of season and the above normal activity of westward propagating monsoon low pressure systems (Monsoon depressions and Lows). In spite of the large variability observed in the rainfall pattern, the overall crop situation in the country during the 2013 Kharif season was better as compared to that in the previous year. The report also discussed verification of the operational rainfall forecasts at short, medium, extended and long range scales based on different standard forecast skill scores.

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