Fifth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5): consensus statement

The fifth session of the SASCOF (SASCOF-5), convened to generate the climate outlook for the summer monsoon season of 2014, was held at Pune, India, from 22-23 April 2014 with the participation of eight South Asian countries. It was preceded by a capacity building training workshop on seasonal prediction for the participants from 14-21 April 2014. Below-normal to normal rainfall is most likely during the 2014 summer monsoon season (June – September) over south Asia as a whole. Below-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southernmost parts of the region. This consensus outlook for the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. There is strong consensus among the experts about the possibility of evolution of an El Niño event during the summer monsoon season.