Three-month real-time Dengue forecast models: An early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore

With a tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue, with the last large outbreak in 2013 culminating in 22170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. The objective of the study was to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate public health response to moderate an impending outbreak.

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