The country is battling an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which is adding to livestock deaths. A yellow fever outbreak is also proving difficult to contain. Since the yellow fever outbreak began in December 2015, 1,975 suspected cases of yellow fever (618 laboratory confirmed) and 258 deaths have been reported, some of them in the capital, Luanda, and in two other provinces, Huambo and Huila.
Amid concerns that the virus will spread to other urban areas and neighbouring countries, a large-scale vaccination campaign was launched in February 2016 and has so far reached almost 7 million people.
Most parts of the country received below average rainfall since the season started in October 2015. Normal to above normal rainfall received in central and western parts of Botswana in December helped to reduce water deficits and improve vegetation conditions in some areas.
However, many of the eastern areas, which include the primary crop growing areas of the country, received below normal rainfall. Some of the areas have not been planted due to lack of rains. This has negatively impacted on crop production prospects with permanent wilting reported in some parts of the country. A few exceptions are in the northern and north-western parts of the country where slightly above average rainfall was received during the last two months.
Lesotho is one of the worst-affected countries in the region, with reports showing that the 2015-16 agricultural season has failed. For the May-June harvesting period, 80 per cent of farmers are not expecting to harvest anything significant. Rain was received during the early months of 2016, which helped improve the water crisis that had been crippling the country.
The government of Lesotho, on December 22, 2015, declared a state of drought emergency. The declaration was accompanied by a jointly developed response plan (ICPs and Government) as well as an appeal for international support.
The south-western parts of the country are experiencing El Niño-induced drought conditions. Low rainfall and high temperatures in January intensified dryness in the southern half of Madagascar, especially in Androy, Anosy and Atsimo-Andrefana regions. The drought, which has affected these regions since October 2015, has negatively impacted crops and livestock, water availability, food prices, livelihoods and nutritional wellbeing. Food and nutrition situation has significantly deteriorated. The deterioration of food security affects the nutritional status of children under five. In February 2016, global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels reached an average of 8 per cent within this group. GAM rates were higher than the critical threshold of 10 per cent in some areas. The district of Tsihombe is the most affected, with an average of 14 per cent of children under five presenting signs of acute malnutrition.
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On April 12, 2016, the President of Malawi declared a State of National Disaster due to prolonged dry spells during the 2015-16 season, with an estimated 2.8 million people being food insecure. Second round of crop estimates show an expected deficit of 1.07 million tonnes of maize, nearly five times the registered deficit in 2015. This implies that the number of people in need of food relief will significantly increase over the next 18 months.
Food insecurity continues to aggravate Malawi’s fragile nutrition situation, with vulnerable groups and people on ART/TB treatment feeling the consequences of drought. Admissions to health clinics for moderate acute malnutrition have risen four-fold since January 2016.
Mozambique has experienced well below average rainfall in the southern and central parts of the country, while above average rainfall has been received over the northern parts. These late rains were insufficient to eliminate the prevailing deficits. Vegetation conditions remain well below average in most of the south.
Nutritional status of children is worrisome, particularly in Sofala, Tete and Manica provinces. The global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates are very high (over 15 per cent in two provinces) with weak health systems and water and sanitation challenges aggravating the situation. Increasingly, children, particularly girls, are dropping out of school to help fetch water and food, and also because families are moving to areas with better conditions.
Poor rainfall in the first half of the rainfall season resulted in delays in planting and a lack of pasture and drinking water for both animals and humans. Namibia experienced an extended delay in the effective onset of rains, with little to no rainfall being received in October and November. In many areas, the onset was delayed by 20 to 40 days. This extended dryness, combined with very high temperatures, and a poor 2014-2015 rainfall season, resulted in significant negative impact on grazing lands and water resources for both humans and livestock. Vegetation fires were also reported and these contributed to a reduction in the availability of grazing.
The number of people at risk of food insecurity is estimated at 370,316. The cabinet approved about N$350 million (US$22.5 million) to support various kinds of interventions.
Rainfall improved in many parts of the country in January and continued through February to mid-March, after several months of very poor rainfall had prevented many farmers from planting. The prolonged delays in the rains resulted in large reductions in the planted area. The rains were insufficient to eliminate rainfall deficits since October, and seasonal rainfall totals are still well below average in most parts of the country.
Commercial maize production in 2016 is estimated at 7.44 million MT, 25 per cent down from 9.96 million MT in 2015, and about 40 per cent below the 5-year average. The government declared seven out of the country’s nine provinces as drought-related disaster areas in November 2015, and set aside approximately US$14.5million to alleviate the impacts. Drought-related cattle deaths have also been reported.
The El Niño-induced drought has seriously affected food and nutrition security and water availability across Swaziland.
The Swaziland Drought Rapid Assessment Report estimates maize production (33,000 tonnes), registered a 64 per cent reduction compared with 2015, which itself was below average. Results confirm that 320,000 people, about 30 per cent of the total population, are in need of immediate food assistance. The hardest-hit regions are Lubombo and Shiselweni. An estimated 64,000 cattle have already perished in the drought, threatening lives and livelihoods. Swaziland has a very high prevalence of HIV/AIDS: 26 per cent among the adult population (15-49 years). A joint health and nutrition rapid assessment, conducted in late March, shows that lack of access to food is reducing adherence to anti-retroviral treatment (ART).
The country has been receiving good rainfall in most areas since the onset of monsoon. High rainfall resulted in flooding in some eastern and central districts, causing damage to crops such as rice and maize.
Pastures and grazing lands were reported to be in good condition, and water supply for livestock is sufficient. However, Tanzania is experiencing cholera outbreak that started in August 2015. As of 14 April, 2016, 20,810 cases have been reported countrywide, with 327 deaths.
Due to delayed onset of rains, most areas in the southern half of the country received below average rains and experienced delays in planting. This continued until the 3rd dekad of January when the situation improved. In several areas, the rains arrived in time to allow revival of crops that had been affected by the preceding dryness.
The rains continued consistently into late March (mid-April in some areas), resulting in average to good crop conditions in many areas. Recent crop estimates released in May put the expected 2015-16 maize production at 2.87 million metric tonnes, up 9.5 percent from 2015’s production, and representing a surplus of 634,000 MT. The country has, however, currently banned export of maize.
Combination of a poor 2015 harvest, an extremely dry early-mid season (October to mid-February) and hotter-than-average conditions have led to extensive crop failure and food insecurity in Zimbabwe.
With some 2.8 million people, more than a quarter of the rural population, already estimated to be food insecure, the number is projected to rise significantly over the next year. The provinces with the highest prevalence of food insecurity are Matabeleland North (43 per cent), Midlands (33 per cent), Masvingo (32 per cent), Mashonaland West (30 per cent) and Matabeleland South (28 per cent). Several interventions are underway to assist the affected households. An estimated 62 000 drought-affected children, women and men were provided with access to safe water to prevent water and sanitation-related diseases.
According to the paper, the AfDB has increased the amount of funding to militate against fragility. As of March 31 2016, 43% of all African Development Bank resources were allocated toward fragile situations, compared to 17% in September 2012.
Currently, around $6.7m is earmarked to finance youth pilot entrepreneurship projects in Burundi, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
It is expected that these schemes will be scaled up under the bank’s Jobs for Youth in Africa Initiative, which seeks to create 25 million jobs for young Africans by 2025.
Up to 4.8 million people in South Sudan face severe food shortages in coming months, the highest level since a conflict erupted more than two years ago, according to the UN agencies.
Clashes have continued to flare up in South Sudan even though warring factions signed a peace deal in August 2015 to end the conflict that erupted in December 2013. But the deal has only been implemented slowly, leaving the country’s economic crisis to deepen.
Rains at this time of year add to the challenge of supplying aid to those in need as roads become impassable.