National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) expects the GDP to grow by 5 to 5.6 per cent in the current fiscal. The growth rate will be influenced by the fall-out of the Iraq war on the global economy. The quarterly review of the economy released by the NCAER on Thursday states, lower world GDP growth could pull down the economic growth rate in India to 5 per cent. The Gulf war will have adverse impact on exports, business sentiments and flow of invisibles.