The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has revised its forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 6.98 per cent it made in October 2003 to 8 per cent during the current fiscal year because of "perceptible change" both in the earlier forecast of normal monsoon and an uncertain global economic situation. In its latest monthly publication, Macrotrack, the independent think tank has said the reasons for its revised forecast for 2003-04 stem from several factors. These include, among others, bumper crop production in agriculture, increase in government consumption by nine per cent in normal terms, 10 per cent increase in government investment and nominal appreciation of four per cent of the Indian rupee vis-