This time is different: the prospects for an effective climate agreement in Paris 2015

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (i) to provide a theoretical framework for analysing international climate policy architectures and their effectiveness, covering each of these elements and issues, drawing on the relevant academic literature; and (ii) to apply insights from this discussion to the anticipated policy architecture of the Paris 2015 agreement (which is emerging in the ongoing negotiations leading up to Paris) and suggest additional cooperative actions that could be taken. The paper argues that the emerging architecture for Paris is, if agreed, likely to be relatively effective, at least compared with the architectures of previous UN climate agreements. However, the paper will also argue that there are further areas in which international climate cooperation could be effective, which are less likely to be captured in the main agreement in Paris.