Interaction of mean temperature and daily fluctuation influences dengue incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh
The sensitivity of mosquito vector and dengue virus biology to diurnal temperature variability has been established, but this study is the first analyzing these relations with dengue occurrence. We show that Dhaka’s tropical hot monsoon climate and small variation in daily temperature enhance dengue transmission one month later. Large-scale climatic events like El Niño-Southern Oscillation and increasing population density of Dhaka also increase incidence. Our results therefore enable us to accurately estimate dengue transmission dynamics in densely populated areas that are also vulnerable to global warming by considering diurnal variability. Our approach reduces the chance of overestimating the effect of increasing temperature on dengue transmission intensity with the ultimate goal of outbreak prediction and control.