Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

Projections of the economic consequences of climate change are valuable for policy making but generally rely on integrated assessments that cannot account for highly localized climate effects. Most agricultural climate impact studies focus on local effects or partial productivity measures insufficient to capture national economic outcomes. Here, we directly link climate variables in specific US regions to total factor productivity (TFP). We quantify the national economic consequences of past climate variations, identify critical agricultural regions with national significance, and project future changes in TFP under different climate scenarios. We provide a physical understanding of these climate−economic links, show that the agricultural economy is becoming increasingly sensitive to climate, and lay a more concrete foundation for informed decision-making.

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