Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., ‘‘cold wake’’ generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980–2008) for a ‘‘control run’’ with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble.

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