No time for complacency: without closing the 2030 gap, net zero targets cannot prevent severe climate impacts

The Glasgow Climate Pact doubled down on the commitment from 197 countries to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but current 2030 targets are insufficient to get us there. Instead, they would lead to 2.4°C of warming by the end of the 21st century. Mid-century net zero commitments and promises could theoretically limit global warming to 1.8°C by 2100, without the strengthening of present 2030 targets. But this is based on very optimistic assumptions about the full implementation of long-term net zero targets that are not backed by near-term policies or targets.