Malawi country climate and development report

This Country Climate and Development Report aims to support Malawi’s efforts to achieve its development goals within a changing climate by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the economy and highlighting key policies and interventions that are needed to strengthen climate resilience. The analysis includes climate modeling across multiple scenarios to account for the inherent uncertainty in climate projections; and sector-by-sector analysis and assessment of economy wide impacts to identify the biggest impacts. It examines Malawi’s current policy landscape and identifies needed reforms; considers how Malawi can best protect its most vulnerable households; and considers how the country can finance its ambitious development and climate agenda, including the key role of the private sector. The analysis shows that climate change will impose large costs on the economy and on already vulnerable households. If Malawi stays on its current low-growth development trajectory, climate change could reduce GDP by 3-9 percent in 2030, 6-20 percent in 2040, and 8-16 percent by 2050). While this finding is not surprising, the magnitude and variability of potential climate impacts is alarming for one of the poorest countries in the world. The largest impacts from climate change are projected to come from damage to roads and bridges and reinforce what the country is currently experiencing in terms of large damage from current climate shocks to infrastructure assets. Heat impacts on labor productivity are also significant and point to compounding shocks on already poor and vulnerable households. The analysis finds that over the next 10 years, climate shocks on the economy could push another 2 million people into poverty (an increase in poverty rate by 8 percentage points), increasing to 4 million additional poor by 2040.

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