Asian development outlook 2024
Developing economies in Asia and the Pacific are forecast to expand by 4.9% on average this year as the region continues its resilient growth amid robust domestic demand, improving semiconductor exports,
Asia
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Over 55% of India will live in urban areas by 2050
Over 55 per cent of Indians will live in urban areas by 2050, a big change from now when only about 30 per cent of the country's population is urban, according to projections in a United Nations report. In terms of numbers, over 900 million people in India will be living in urban centres in another 40 years, three times the over-300 million urbandwellers today. However, India will still not be as urbanised as China where the number of people living in cities will go up to 70 per cent from the current 40 per cent. India will remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades, according to the 2007 Revision of World Urbanisation Prospects released by the UN on Tuesday. By 2025, Chennai will be another mega city of over 10 million people, besides Mumbai with 26.4 million (up from 18 million in 2005), Delhi at 22.5 million (up from 16 million) and Kolkata with 20.5 million residents (up from 14 million). The population growth in many second tier cities will even be high er. In Ahmedabad by 2025, the population will grow to 7.7 million, up 50 per cent from the current 5.1 million. In Pune, 6.8 million people will live by then, a growth of 60 per cent from the current 4.4 million. Migration from rural to urban areas would continue despite attempts by the country's planners to prevent people from moving to cities, said Hania Zlotnik, director of department of economic and social affairs' population divi sion, while releasing the report in New York. Ms Zlotnik said Indian planners should try to promote economic development in rural areas. But improving agriculture and establishment of agroindustries would mean fewer people would be needed in that sector, pushing excess labour to the non-farm sector in the cities. She outlined two scenarios - either people would migrate to cities such as Mumbai, or one-time rural areas would transition into urban centres by generating other activities as has been happening in China. The annual population growth in India's rural areas has been declining since reaching a peak of 1.9 per cent during 1980-85. It will record negative growth by 2025. In comparison, the urban growth rate reached a peak of 3.9 percent during 1975-80 and has been declining since, yet will remain above two per cent till 2040. Projecting for the world, the UN report said half the global population would live in cities by the end of this year, for the first time in human history. Their number would rise to 70 per cent by 2050, most of that growth being concentrated in Asia and Africa. The number of mega cities is expected to double from the current 20 to 40 by year 2025. The greatest expansion, however, would happen not in metropolises but in cities with populations of less than 500,000 and even some of the rural areas will graduate into urban areas. The report notes that its projections will be realised only if fertility rates in the developing world continue to decline.
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When the vital cables gave way
Work has begun to repair three damaged undersea fibre-optic cables that were severed in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf on January 30 and February 1. The cause of the cable break is
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Humanity moving to cities, towns
Half of them will live in urban areas by end of 2008:U.N. Half the world's people will live in urban areas by the end of this year and about 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050, with cities and towns in Asia and Africa registering the biggest growth, according to new U.N. projections. But India is expected to urbanise at a significantly lower rate than China, and is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during coming decades. The report predicts that there will be 27 "megacities' with at least 10 million population by mid-century compared to 19 today, but it forecasts that at least half the urban growth in the coming decades will be in the many smaller cities with less than 500,000 people. According to the latest U.N. estimate last year, world population is expected to increase from 6.7 billion in 2007 to 9.2 billion in 2050. During the same time period, the report said, the population living in urban areas is projected to rise from 3.3 billion to 6.4 billion. "Thus, the urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population,' the report said. "As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in about a decade, and 600 million fewer rural inhabitants are expected in 2050 than today.' The report stresses that these projections will take place only if the number of children in families in the developing world continues to decline, especially in Africa and Asia. Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. Population Division, expressed the hope that increasing urbanisation "will go hand in hand with economic growth.' She said more than 70 per cent of the population in Europe, North America, and many other richer developed countries already live in urban areas. But only 39 per cent of Africans and 41 per cent of Asians lived in urban areas last year . "During 2008, for the first time in history, the proportion of the population living in urban areas will reach 50 per cent,' it said. By mid-century, Asia is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.8 billion, Africa by 900 million, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 200 million, it said. China at this moment is 40 per cent urban, Ms. Zlotnik said. The U.N. expects its urban population to reach more than 70 per cent by 2050 , she said. By contrast India, currently has just over 300 million urban residents, or 29 per cent of its population living in urban areas, Ms. Zlotnik said, and by 2050 it is expected to have only 55 per cent of its population, about 900 million, in cities. "So India is expected to urbanise much less than China, and therefore it is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades.'
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India must return to Eurasian energy game
Central Asia is a difficult region, but with the right mix of political and financial capital, India could still make headway. If the great game over the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia were to be compared to a five-act Shakespearean play, we might say Act III, Scene I has just begun. On a Venice street, Shylock famously posits to Salarino the metaphorical relationship of intricate counter-balances: "If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?'
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In Short
>> In a non-binding report, the European Parliament has given more time to car manufacturers for reducing CO2 emissions from tailpipes. Manufacturers should reduce the emissions to 125 grammes
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Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models.
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A pathway to sustainability in urban sanitation for developing Asian countries
This thesis is concerned with facilitating change leading to urban sanitation that is sustainable. It explores how developing Asian countries might arrive at arrangements for urban sanitation that can feasibly be sustained in the long term, as well as support sustainability in general.
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Water rights and water allocation: issues and challenges for the Asian region
This paper aims to raise awareness and capacity among member organizations of the Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO) and their interested groups on the issues surrounding water rights and allocation. This paper examines in more detail the definitions, principles, and characteristics of water rights and water allocation; two approaches to water allocation are outlined
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The climate regime beyond 2012: reconciling Asian developmental priorities and global climate interests
This report presents a summary of what has been learnt through the third round of consultations, interviews and questionnaire surveys with policymakers and climate policy researchers across the Asia-Pacific region. It considers how sectoral approaches can be integrated in the future climate regime by looking at institutional and operational issues from an Asian perspective. It examines incentive structures and the political feasibility of selected proposals on technology cooperation.
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The millennium ecosystem assessment
This paper provides an overview of selected trends and conditions of ecosystem services, in particular, food production and impacts on the environment based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It then describes outcomes for future ecosystem services under alternative development pathways, with a focus on tradeoffs between food security and the environment, such as implications for fertilizer use, and the role of biofuels.