Resource disputes in South Asia: water scarcity and the potential for interstate conflict

This report is divided into four main components. Section 1 summarizes the history and status of major water disputes between India and three of its neighbors, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Section 2 forecasts trends in water demand by analyzing expected growth patterns in domestic, agricultural and industrial use. It also examines the probable effects of climate change on the projected water supply in each major South Asian river system. Section 3 extrapolates from current trends to forecast the likelihood, location and magnitude of conflicts about water in South Asia. Finally, Section 4 presents an opportunity analysis, in which strategies to mitigate potential conflict are discussed.