Seasonal climate outlook for South Asia (February to April 2014)

The current El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are most likely to continue in to the second quarter of 2014. However, there is an enhanced possibility of development of a weak El Niño during the middle of 2014. However, the probability for neutral ENSO is also as high as for weak El Nino. The rainfall activity during the next four months (January to April) is likely to be above normal over northeast India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. This suggests that the pre-monsoon seasonal thunderstorm activity is likely to be enhanced over these regions. Temperatures in the next four months are likely to be higher than normal over most parts of South Asia. On monthly scale, the month of April is likely to be wetter than normal over most parts of south Asia. On monthly scale, the temperatures are likely to be normal to warmer than normal over most of the countries in the region during the forecast period.