Uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis of CMIP5 projections for the Indian summer monsoon

A 'reliability ensemble averaging (REA)' technique is proposed to provide a quantitative estimate of associated uncertainty range and reliability of future climate change projections for Indian summer monsoon (June-September), simulated by the state-of-the-art Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5).