Seasonal climate outlook for South Asia (June to September 2014)

Currently the ENSO conditions over equatorial Pacific are in the border line between warm ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions. Latest forecasts from almost all ENSO prediction models indicate a transition to sustained El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon with probability of about 70%. The chance for El Nino conditions increases to about 80% during the subsequent period. June to Audust and July to September seasons are likely to be drier than normal over most parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, whereas, normal to wetter than normal conditons are likely over most part of Afganistan, southern parts of Sri Lanka and southern parts of Myanmar.

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