El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): review of possible impact on agricultural production in 2014/15

  • 17/06/2014
  • FAO

An update out from FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) reviews the possible impacts of an El Niño event on agricultural production during the 2014-15 period. Current meteorological forecasts indicate a 70 percent probability of El Niño occurring this year during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, and an 80 percent probability that it will occur during the autumn or winter. This follows a rise in equatorial sea surface temperatures in recent months. While there is still uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop, and an even greater uncertainty regarding its potential severity, FAO's update looks at the potential changes in weather patterns that may occur and their possible impacts on food production. The effect on agriculture will depend on the timing and severity of El Niño, as well as local cropping calendars.