El Niño and the Indian rainfall in June

We have addressed the question of whether the massive deficit of 42% in rainfall over the Indian region in June 2014 can be attributed primarily to the El Niño. We have shown that the variation of convection over the Northern part of the Tropical West Pacific (NWTP: 120–150E, 20–30N) plays a major role in determining the all-India rainfall in June with deficit (excess) in rainfall associated with enhancement (suppression) of convection over NWTP. In June 2014, the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly over this region was unfavourable, whereas in June 2015, the OLR anomaly over NWTP was favourable and the all-India rainfall was 16% higher than the long-term average.

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