1.5°C Pathways for the EU27: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement

Global action remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Increasing the ambition of 2030 climate targets and accelerating emissions reductions in this decade are essential. This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the EU27 and assesses whether the EU’s current 2030 climate targets are aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that, to be 1.5°C compatible, the EU27 would need to cut its domestic emissions faster than currently planned. 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed in this report, and filtered to meet sustainability constraints, show that the EU27 can feasibly: Reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 63-73% below 1990 levels excl. landuse, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Accounting for LULUCF, this corresponds to a66-77% reduction by 2030, relative to 1990 levels; Reach net zero GHG emissions between 2040-2045; Limit the EU27’s total cumulative CO2 emissions to 11-22GtCO2 from 2020 until mid-century(incl. LULUCF). The analysis therefore suggests that the EU27’s current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which aims to cut emissions by 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF), cannot be seen as compatible with 1.5°C.