The outlook for energy: a view to 2040

Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil said in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy. During the period, the world’s population will increase by about 2 billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand significantly. Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135 percent. Natural gas is expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth in global energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by 50 percent. Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to account for nearly 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand by 2040. By then, they are expected to make up nearly 25 percent of supplies of which nuclear alone represents about one third.

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